中國環境污染到了致命的邊緣

沒有任何國家在歷史上因為發展工業而造成對環境的如此傷害，這將耗費幾十年的時間和巨大的財力來恢復。

中國經濟實力的上升速度和標度在歷史上沒有明確的比較, 因此它的污染問題打破了所有先例。目前環境退化非常嚴峻, 從國內和國際反映來看, 環境污染不僅給中國公眾的帶來沈重負擔，而且對中共是一個深刻政治挑戰。中國可能毀在它自己的經濟重型卡車裡。

公共健康日驅嚴重

污染導致癌症成了中國的第一死亡因素。中共衛生部認為，單單空氣污染就造成每年成千上萬的人死亡。幾乎5億中國人沒有安全飲用水。

中國城市好像被包裹在一件毒性灰色壽衣。560個百萬城市中，只有1%的城市的居民呼吸的空氣被歐共體認為安全。北京拚命希望尋找一個奇蹟, 使北京的奧運會有一個晴朗的天空。

在一些國家被認為的災難似乎普遍在中國存在:工業城市裡 人們很少看見太陽; 孩子們因鉛中毒或其它類型地方污染死亡或得病; 海岸線變成了藻類紅色浪潮, 大部分海洋不再生長海洋生物。

中國的經濟成功導致自我扼殺

經濟在歷史性的兩位數增長。但增長使現在比過去任何時候需要更巨大的能量, 重工業和都市化的搖擺般的擴展，幾乎全使用最骯髒的煤炭。

中國的最前沿的環境研究員的Wang Jinnan說，"這使國家處於一個非常愚笨的處境：因為我們的最大的成就也是我們的最大的負擔 。"在這種壓力下需要改變, 但許多人拒絕接受新的方法來改變這種局面。"

中國的問題成為了世界的問題。

由中國的燃煤電廠吐出的二氧化硫和氧化氮成為酸雨在漢城、南韓, 和東京降落。 根據地球物理的研究學報指出，許多顆粒性的污染漂落在洛杉磯都源於中國,

在許多外部世界對全球性變暖關注之時，中國繼續進入它的工業革命最健壯的階段。

專家們曾指出，中國也許在2010 年以前，追上美國成為世界溫室氣體的主要排放國, 也許更早。國際能源組織現在認為中國在今年以前成為世界溫室氣體的第一排放國。 荷蘭環境評估代辦處認為中國已經超過了那個水平。

中共的政治算盤很可怕

勒住經濟增長以緩和污染也許符合邏輯, 但整個國家的機器是卻像著了魔。用經濟繁榮安撫公眾, 寵信拉關係的官員和阻止政治變革。大的經濟減緩將會造成社會動盪, 商業利益受損和威脅中共的統治。

但污染已經威脅到了自己頭上。官員們歸吝於腐臭的空氣和水造成數以萬計社會動盪事件。醫療保健費用直線上升。嚴重缺水使更多農田變成沙漠。沒有節制的工業擴展造成對進口石油和骯髒的煤炭的更加巨大的依賴性, 意味著環境問題拖的越長越難以解決，耗費更大。

中國的領導人承認 他們必須改換做法，發誓停止鄧小平時代的成長第一哲學和接受一個可平穩的成長和保護環境的新模型。在溫家寶的國情咨文裡，他提到48次關於 "污染" 或"環境保護。"

當局制訂了許多目標為減少廢氣排放和節約能源。為污染產業出口補貼被逐步淘汰了。不同的活動開始關閉非法煤礦和快門一些沈重污染工廠。將開發乾淨的能源像太陽和風力。在2008 奧林匹克之前，加強了在北京、上海和其它主要的城市的環境規定。

As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes

BEIJING, Aug. 25 ─ No country in history has emerged as a major industrial power without creating a legacy of environmental damage that can take decades and big dollops of public wealth to undo.

But just as the speed and scale of China’s rise as an economic power have no clear parallel in history, so its pollution problem has shattered all precedents. Environmental degradation is now so severe, with such stark domestic and international repercussions, that pollution poses not only a major long-term burden on the Chinese public but also an acute political challenge to the ruling Communist Party. And it is not clear that China can rein in its own economic juggernaut.

Public health is reeling. Pollution has made cancer China’s leading cause of death, the Ministry of Health says. Ambient air pollution alone is blamed for hundreds of thousands of deaths each year. Nearly 500 million people lack access to safe drinking water.

Chinese cities often seem wrapped in a toxic gray shroud. Only 1 percent of the country’s 560 million city dwellers breathe air considered safe by the European Union. Beijing is frantically searching for a magic formula, a meteorological deus ex machina, to clear its skies for the 2008 Olympics.

Environmental woes that might be considered catastrophic in some countries can seem commonplace in China: industrial cities where people rarely see the sun; children killed or sickened by lead poisoning or other types of local pollution; a coastline so swamped by algal red tides that large sections of the ocean no longer sustain marine life.

China is choking on its own success. The economy is on a historic run, posting a succession of double-digit growth rates. But the growth derives, now more than at any time in the recent past, from a staggering expansion of heavy industry and urbanization that requires colossal inputs of energy, almost all from coal, the most readily available, and dirtiest, source.

「It is a very awkward situation for the country because our greatest achievement is also our biggest burden,」 says Wang Jinnan, one of China’s leading environmental researchers. 「There is pressure for change, but many people refuse to accept that we need a new approach so soon.」

China’s problem has become the world’s problem. Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides spewed by China’s coal-fired power plants fall as acid rain on Seoul, South Korea, and Tokyo. Much of the particulate pollution over Los Angeles originates in China, according to the Journal of Geophysical Research.

More pressing still, China has entered the most robust stage of its industrial revolution, even as much of the outside world has become preoccupied with global warming.

Experts once thought China might overtake the United States as the world’s leading producer of greenhouse gases by 2010, possibly later. Now, the International Energy Agency has said China could become the emissions leader by the end of this year, and the Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency said China had already passed that level.

For the Communist Party, the political calculus is daunting. Reining in economic growth to alleviate pollution may seem logical, but the country’s authoritarian system is addicted to fast growth. Delivering prosperity placates the public, provides spoils for well-connected officials and forestalls demands for political change. A major slowdown could incite social unrest, alienate business interests and threaten the party’s rule.

But pollution poses its own threat. Officials blame fetid air and water for thousands of episodes of social unrest. Health care costs have climbed sharply. Severe water shortages could turn more farmland into desert. And the unconstrained expansion of energy-intensive industries creates greater dependence on imported oil and dirty coal, meaning that environmental problems get harder and more expensive to address the longer they are unresolved.

China’s leaders recognize that they must change course. They are vowing to overhaul the growth-first philosophy of the Deng Xiaoping era and embrace a new model that allows for steady growth while protecting the environment. In his equivalent of a State of the Union address this year, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao made 48 references to 「environment,」 「pollution」 or 「environmental protection.」

The government has numerical targets for reducing emissions and conserving energy. Export subsidies for polluting industries have been phased out. Different campaigns have been started to close illegal coal mines and shutter some heavily polluting factories. Major initiatives are under way to develop clean energy sources like solar and wind power. And environmental regulation in Beijing, Shanghai and other leading cities has been tightened ahead of the 2008 Olympics. 看中國網站 禁止建立鏡像網站 。

来源:紐約時報 北京, 8月25 日

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